When it Comes to Books, Don’t Fear the Reaper
For decades now, we’ve been hearing talk of the death of print. Cliché phrases such as, “No one reads,” “Books are on the way out,” and “Paper printing is a dead technology,” are heard again and again by those modeling the latest, most fashionable gadgets and the so-called experts. Hype comes in many forms.
The computer is more than half a century old now; the personal computer has been ubiquitous for two decades – the laptop for 10 years; PDAs and palm-enabled phones are quickly usurping the laptop. With each newer, smaller machine the volume swells on the old chant: “Books are doomed! The end is near!”
Are book printers worried? Well, yes. But should they be? No. A look at the numbers behind the book business reveals a healthy industry. Though many people cite a decline in new titles of 18,000 in 2005 relative to 2004, this drop in and of itself does not give enough information for a clear picture. True, fewer titles were published in 2005, but, in 2004, more titles were published in the United States than in any other year in history. According to Bowker statistics, 195,000 titles were published domestically and 375,000 English titles were published internationally. The drop-off certainly does not denote the industry’s demise.
“I think there’s a lot of fear,” but “basically since the 1960s, people have been predicting the demise of print. ... there’s always talk about it,” said Noelle Skodzinski, editor-in-chief of Book Business magazine, a sister publication of BFL&S.
The high cost and limited availability of technology such as e-books aren’t the only issues preventing print from falling off the cliff. Many industry leaders feel tangible, print-on-paper media will never disappear. Skodzinski is among them. “I think there will always be a place for digital and traditional printing,” Skodzinski said. She defended traditional offset methods as well: “There are always going to be mass market books that need to be produced in enormous quantities. There are efficiencies gained by traditional book manufacturing that I don’t think you can achieve with digital [printing],” she said.
For those supplying brochures and annual reports, the same rules hold. Whether it is logical or reasonable or not, many people, especially consumers, take information more seriously when it is in a tangible form.
It is easy to lose sight of this kind of thinking when trying to keep up with the industry. Press coverage and industry buzz usually give the impression that the newest products and technologies are the biggest and most important. This is not always true. In the case of book manufacturing, digital and short-run printing still represent a small number of individual items. Short-run does represent a large number of titles published, though.
Eventually, this may have a massive effect on the industry. The business model for short run and digital printing has come to be called Long Tail, referring to a group of mathematical Cartesian graphs with a data “tail” of small y values. Long Tail Theory states that many low-volume items will outnumber a few high volume items. For example, all the B-2-B magazines currently in print have a higher circulation than Time or Newsweek, but either one of these publications has a much wider circulation than any one B-2-B. For digital and short-run markets, this means printing perhaps 10,000 low-volume titles could prove more profitable than printing a few New York Times bestsellers. This business model for printing is only feasible using the new digital press technologies. Brochure and annual report printing are prime examples of products that can utilize Long Tail business models.
Eugene Schwartz, editor at large of ForeWord magazine, believes digital and on-demand printing is one of the largest factors affecting the industry, and it is “eroding larger markets.” The question is, how quickly? “The offset has been able to accommodate short runs down to 50 or 100 using small sized presses ... but they still have a certain amount of make ready, spoilage and setup requirements, even with computer-to-plate and automatic plate,” he said. “These systems ... still don’t compete with the ability of a laser printer or ink-jet printer to do a clean, single copy without make-ready.”
Large companies seem to be catching on to these new models and new markets, and, in an effort to capitalize on them, are buying many small and independent companies.
These statements are consistent with the observations of Werner Naegeli, president of Muller Martini USA, Happauge, N.Y., and Kerry Burroughs, division manager of book binding at Muller Martini USA.
Naegeli said business at his company has been good with healthy sales representing a healthy industry. He noted, “Consolidation is really felt here. ... We see many more involved installations, bigger ones, and big customers buying from us.”
Burroughs said Muller Martini has seen an increase in business from used and refurbished machines. Larger companies will buy small operations for publication lists and clients, but will sell the machines, causing an increase in used equipment on the market, he stated.
Both Naegeli and Burroughs said companies purchasing Muller Martini equipment are generally mid- to high-volume printing companies. “Digital printing is growing,” Naegeli said, “but not at the pace a lot of people thought.”
Even so, Muller Martini recognizes the potential in this market. “Our philosophy is, in this particular sector, to take full advantage of the digital technologies. That means very, very short runs ... and those runs have to be done very efficiently. That means our development goes into zero waste and zero make-ready,” Naegeli explained. Additionally, the company seeks to maximize automation of the machinery to increase efficiency and reduce potential human error. He said the SigmaBinder achieved this goal. Now, the company will focus on improving data handling and plans to reintroduce its SigmaTrimmer.
Naegeli went on to explain, many companies are involved in digital printing but generally only represent a small volume. “Muller Martini equipment is at the upper end of the spectrum, so a lot of people cannot fill the capacity of these machines yet,” he asserted. Muller Martini’s SigmaLine of binding machines completes 1,000 books per hour. Naegeli later expressed his optimism for the industry’s growth: “Others will follow, but, right now, only the big [companies] have sufficient volume to justify our machines.”
In regard to developments in general binding technology, Burroughs said, overall, he has noticed the demand for polyurethane reactive (PUR) glues. “More than half the people insist that they either need to run PUR now or in the near future,” he said. He also explained how new and retrofitted designs to the Muller Martini equipment allow users to clean the pot and move rollers out of the way, essential features when dealing with PUR glues.
Those in the printing business show no sign of fear in the industry. There are signs of consolidation, none of collapse, and though digital still accounts for a small segment of the business, this will not be the case forever. From an ideal economic analysis point of view, any and all books would be printed on demand. Eliminating the need for storage space and any extra copies reduces overhead. This obviously is not realistically feasible, but, in general, the closer the supply comes to the demand, the greater the profit. This means that, as small run technologies become faster, cheaper and more efficient, more titles will find digital to be the best market option. So it seems, once again, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was correct: “...the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
- Companies:
- Muller Martini