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3. Declining rate cycle to bottom out. The expectation that rates will remain low belies logic. Historically, the Workers’ Compensation price cycle has proven “what goes down, must go up.” All eyes are turned again to California, often a precursor for the nation, where a key insurance industry group is urging the Insurance Commissioner to recommend a 4.2 percent rate hike in 2008, citing the cost of legal work, fraud investigation and other claims management tasks. While dramatic rate increases are unlikely, the tide is turning, and the days of double-digit percentage rate reductions may well be over.
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