Dr. Joe Webb, director of Lexington, Kentucky-based What They Think’s Economics and Research Center, offers thoughts on the marketplace’s future in light of current economic challenges.
The current financial turmoil is supposedly making it very difficult to forecast the future. However, there is a strange paradox about forecasting—the further out you forecast, the more accurate you can be. But, you can’t use numbers.
Most planning exercises I’ve seen in organizations are numbers-focused only and not trend-focused. Demographic trends are almost always the most important underlying contributor to the direction of change. The most important demographic trends today are birth rates, increasing longevity and increasing wealth.
I’ve put together a list of trends that affect print demand and communications industries with an eye toward 2018. The year matters not—it’s just a convenient time frame to aim for.
• Global instant connectivity will intensify and decrease in cost. The world will not be totally connected in 2018 because some frontier and emerging markets and cultures will still be lagging, but communications that are nearly free in cost and politically free from censorship and restraint will offer massive opportunities and be a disruptive, yet constructive force, in many countries.
• Handheld “supercomputers” will be our constant companions. What were considered to be supercomputers thirty years ago will be found in common consumer devices and at prices that make them almost disposable. The ubiquity of these devices will mean that the constraints of geography, distance and time will become less meaningful; possibly even meaningless.
• More smaller business entities will work virtually. As entrepreneurship develops in new economies, the new communications infrastructure allows smaller businesses to conduct business globally, and even large companies will use more virtual workers, only requiring occasional appearances in the office.
• The freelance and independent workforce will continue to grow, especially as older, knowledgeable workers live longer, healthier, wealthier lives and choose to leverage their specialized knowledge. The word “outsourcing” will have almost no meaning because individuals will be increasingly able to work for others without regard to location.
• The worldwide financial balance of power is shifting from the U.S. and Europe to Asia as a result of the rapidly growing wealth of many Asian markets. Europe’s population is declining, getting older, and will be burdened by the cost of social programs without enough younger workers to finance them. North America’s population is growing, but its social programs will be growing, too. The social costs of Europe and North America will be paid for by the transfer of assets of retirees to younger Asian populaces. These workers will be able to invest their newfound wealth worldwide, and North America and Europe will be the best markets for their goods, creating stronger economic bonds.
This means that the U.S. economic influence will decline in relative terms. The U.S. will become the 21st century’s United Kingdom. The U.K. still has great influence, but it is no longer a prime driver of world economic trends. The U.S. will be feeling the same shift gradually, but discernibly, over the next 10 years.
• Traditional publishing is already becoming a niche market. Broadcast, hard copy, and Internet publishing are merging, becoming indistinguishable business entities. This is driven by consumers asserting control of how they receive information. Although there are some publications that are globally influential, such as “The Financial Times,” the “Wall Street Journal,” there will be truly global publications, not regional publications with a small number of subscribers outside their countries of origin. It will happen, and will happen online.
• Business communications today are largely electronic, especially when you consider e-mail. As the amount of information and the number of business transactions increases, there is a greater urgency to have immediate access to information.
One cannot look at these technological and demographic trends without wondering how print will survive. Digital printing surely has an edge, but even that technology is threatened by the same trends. Emerging markets will develop for electronic information distribution first. Many of these markets are only now experiencing free speech, advertising, increasing literacy rates and a measure of wealth that brings a level of ease to daily life. Their newspaper markets will grow, but versions of the U.S. “big metro dailies” or national newspapers common in many countries will not be forthcoming.
What does this mean for print and the U.S. market? Print’s role in overall media is still changing, and the opportunities presented by other media will continue to shift capital and workers away from print. Many printing businesses succeeded because all of their capital (defined as investments, knowledge, experience, craft) was devoted to just that one medium. While that simply doesn’t work in today’s market, neither can we abandon print. It still has a role to play, and profits from print (old business) are required to develop the opportunities presented by new media (new business).
One very clear strategy is investment in a global print media infrastructure. I am frankly quite surprised that we haven’t seen print businesses collaborating to invest in overseas ventures. At the very least, print service providers should seek to support customers who are globally active, because those companies will be growing faster than companies that are not.
Small and mid-sized businesses have the greatest need for communications-related services. They have scarce resources and less time; and they often lack the ability to hire internal expertise. Thus, they must rely on outsourcing. There is more gold to be found in mining the small to mid-sized business opportunity than there is in going after the “big fish” and there may be less competition as well for savvy providers who can offer innovative services.
For more information, visit www.whattheythink.com.
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